SSOE新闻稿: 上海公司成立 从EPCM入手

上海公司主要负责中国及周边地区业务，初期从项目管理入手，上海公司负责人为Enzo Colonna，意大利裔，32年从业经验，行业背景如下： Lockwood Greene: 全称Lockwood Greene Engineers, Inc., Spartanburg, SC; 行业设计院，2007年雇员2500人，预算销售额1.6亿美金。主要同业Earth Tech，Fluor，Foster Wheeler。 Industrial engineering and construction firm Lockwood Greene Engineers serves manufacturing, process, power, and institutional markets. It offers a large array of architectural, engineering, and construction services and also provides specialty services such as security systems design and packaging. The group evolved from a one-person firm founded in 1832 to help design textile plants in New England, but it now operates from offices worldwide. Among its projects is the design and renovation of relocated offices for the New York facilities service office of the United States Postal Service. Bankrupt construction and engineering group J.A. Jones sold Lockwood Greene to CH2M Hill for $95.5 million in 2003. Philip Holzmann International Gmbh，2007年新成立德国工程顾问公司，网上信息无，阿联酋行业网站有登录，主网站为空：www.philipp-holzmann.de CH2M Hill 全名：CH2M HILL Companies, Ltd.，Englewood, CO.，行业设计院，交通、化工、能源、医疗专业，2007年销售额44亿美金，雇员总数22,000人。Forbes最大私人公司排名77位。主要同行MWH Global，Tetra Tech，URS。 Catchy, no. Descriptive, yes. CH2M HILL's name is culled from its founders -- Cornell, Howland, Hayes, and Merryfield -- plus HILL, from its first merger. The group is organized into three divisions: civil infrastructure, industrial, and federal. Its civil infrastructure group designs and builds water and wastewater systems, airports, highways, and other transportation infrastructures. Federal services include nuclear and environmental cleanup projects and US government facility operations. Industrial operations include engineering, procurement, and construction for private-sector companies in the chemical, energy, and life sciences industries. Clients include the US Department of Defense and the US Navy. CH2M Hill / IDC 全名：CH2M Hill Industrial Design and Construction, Inc.，Portland, OR，是 CH2M Hill的子公司，2007年销售额7600万美金，雇员总数1200人。主要同行Jacobs Engineering，M+W Zander U.S. Operations，URS。 CH2M Hill Industrial Design and Construction (IDC) really gets around. The architectural and engineering firm has customers around the world and provides facility planning, design, construction, and support services for high-tech and process-intensive industries such as biotechnology, food and beverage, and electronics. The group offers operations and maintenance services from site selection to plant start-ups. It is a key player in the design and construction of nanotechnology facilities and flat-panel manufacturing facilities. It also designs and builds R&D labs, cleanrooms, and pharmaceutical facilities. The group, a unit of environmental engineering design firm CH2M Hill, was founded in 1985. Syska & Hennessy 全名：Syska Hennessy Group, Inc.，New York, NY, United States，是知名设计院，2007年度销售额1亿美金，员工总数580人。主要同行CH2M HILL，Parsons Brinckerhoff，URS。 One of the top US engineering firms, Syska Hennessy Group (named after its two founders) has provided services ranging from mechanical and engineering consulting for Arrowhead Pond arena, home of the Anaheim Ducks, in Anaheim, California, to the rebuilding of Pentagon interiors after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attack. Formerly named Syska & Hennessy, the group offers consulting, engineering, technology, and construction services to private and public corporations, high tech companies, colleges and universities, real estate owners and developers, as well as various government agencies, from more than 15 offices nationwide. The management-owned company also offers facilities management. SSOE还太小，Hoover没有登录，D&B有，要付费。

SSOE新闻稿: 上海公司成立 February 9, 2005 下载地址

February 9, 2005 SSOE, INC. OPENS SHANGHAI OPERATION February 9, 2005 - SSOE, Inc., a recognized industry leader in providing architectural, engineering and management services to a global client-base has opened an operation in Shanghai, China. The new office will manage a variety of projects in and around China. The Shanghai office will be led by Enzo Colonna who is a very experienced international manager to diversified industrial business sectors. Mr. Colonna brings more than 32 years of consulting, architectural, engineering , process engineering and construction experience from companies like Lockwood Greene International, Philip Holzmann International, CH2M Hill / IDC and Syska & Hennessy. Mr. Colonna’s accomplishments include innovative and resourceful global experience with all aspects of project implementation, corporate liaison and director of projects, as well as branch, country and area management. He has opened Middle Eastern, European, South American and Asia Pacific markets. Mr. Colonna is also fluent in several languages including English, French, Italian and Spanish. Management capabilities and project delivery expertise are part of SSOE’s versatility. Depth in design, engineering, quality and experience are characteristics of SSOE’s management style. Each project begins with an intense study designed to clearly communicate project goals, parameters and constraints to all team members. This session allows SSOE to solidify and prioritize project goals, identify critical concerns and establish the framework for decision-making. SSOE’s project approach is dynamic and interactive. Team-based customer listening is the cornerstone of our project management process and the foundation for effective solutions. It invites ownership, user-group consensus and innovation that lead to successful projects for SSOE’s clients. About SSOE, Inc. SSOE, Inc. is a leading architectural and engineering firm with 11 office locations across the US, Puerto Rico and China. In SSOE’s 57 years of business, they have provided professional services throughout the globe for a broad and diverse client-base. SSOE is ISO 9001 Certified. For additional information on SSOE, Inc., visit www.ssoe.com Shanghai Operations Contact: Enzo Colonna, ecolonna@ssoe.com, Telephone 86-21-587-85857. Corporate Contact: Linda Slusher, lslusher@ssoe.com, lslusher@ssoe.com, Telephone 419.255.3830

Stopdesign Redesign the Blogger.com for Google

Blogger界面模板动一下就是上千工时。

http://www.stopdesign.com/log/2004/05/09/blogger.html

For those of us involved in the project, we’ve been waiting months for this day to come. At long last, I’m proud to announce the launch of a project representing the latest collaboration between Stopdesign and Adaptive Path: the redesign of Blogger.com. Congratulations to the entire Blogger team on completing hundreds of hours, and expending tremendous effort to fit so much into this launch. This is Blogger’s first major overhaul since getting acquired by Google in February 2003, and it’s a biggie. The redesign includes a major reworking of Blogger’s home page and sign up process, and a new dashboard for logged in users. With this redesign, we focused on making the Blogger brand and interface much more friendly and approachable. The design features rounded corners, large icons, direct concepts, and helpful directions. Adaptive Path and Stopdesign worked with Google to pare down the sign up process (account creation), making it short, intuitive, and effortless for first-time visitors. We aimed at creating a structure and design that has as wide a range of appeal as possible. From the large base of Blogger’s existing users, to the multitudes arriving from Google on a regular basis who have no idea what the word blog means. The Blogger home page now promotes the simplicity of creating a new blog by highlighting the short 3-step process. The page also presents a simplified definition of the word “blog” right up front, and directs new users into a short tour if they want to learn more. In addition to the site redesign, Google ups the ante for this relaunch by adding a slew of new features for their users: comments, user profiles, individual post pages, and conditional template tags. On top of that, they’ve significantly revamped the application interface to mirror the new look and feel of the site. A few additional notes about the redesign: New Set of Blog Templates One of the new enhancements Stopdesign worked with Google to complete and include in this launch is the creation of a whole new set of user templates available for immediate use. Rather than have all templates created by Stopdesign, I thought it would be fun to expand the team involved. What if I asked other talented individuals I respected and wanted to work with to join me in designing brand new templates? I wanted to share in the responsibility of template design and creation, providing even more variety to Google and Blogger’s user base. You may know most (or all) of the names of those who graciously accepted to help me create these new templates: Dan Cederholm Todd Dominey Dan Rubin Dave Shea Jeffrey Zeldman A peek at a few of the new blog templates: The full selection of templates (along with their full-size previews) are visible inside the Blogger application. You may see more from the individual template designer on their respective sites about the design choices and techniques each of them used. As for the impact of this part of the project, not only will thousands (millions?) of blog templates now be generated with more flexible, scannable, indexable, and standards-compliant code, but anyone throughout the world can now create an account, start a blog, and have a personal site designed by any of the talented gentleman listed above, all for free. The Evolved Identity  Sharp-eyed party-goers at the Blogger party in Austin during SxSW may have noticed the signage and multitude of free t-shirts they handed out which featured a new identity with rounded corners and a new type treatment to match. When we set out to establish the new visual identity of the site, we kept running up against the hard corners of the old Blogger logo, and the somewhat impersonal type treatment which limited the friendly qualities we were trying to inject into the brand. We didn’t want to push the logo far from what everyone knows — after all, the big orange B is widely known and loved by many a folk. Instead, we chose to evolve the logo, so it could take on a few new attributes. We sanded down some of the sharp edges and refined a few of the proportions, then carefully selected a typeface more suited to a product targeting the masses. Home Page Visitors without Blogger accounts, or users currently logged out will see a different home page at blogger.com than users logged into the system. The logged out page provides answers to the question, “What’s a blog?” and highlights how short and simple the new account/blog creation process is. The logged in page presents a new Dashboard view. The Dashboard acts as an enhanced intermediary between the site and the application interface. It provides a customized view of the Blogger home page by displaying a quick overview of the user’s blogs, related profile information, updated blog content, and Blogger news. Can’t say what else is in the pipeline for additions to the dashboard, but users can most likely expect many more changes and new features in the near future. The new icons and buttons produced for Blogger (visible on the logged out home page and throughout the site and application) are intended to complement the amiable nature of the new brand. They pick up where I left off on a style I started using about six years ago for the Webmonkey Kids design. Some of the icons were sketched on pen an paper (ahem, numerous times). After finalizing an approximate look, the icons were drawn in Illustrator using a pressure-sensitive Wacom tablet and pen to create the base artwork, then cleaned up by manipulating paths and Bézier curves within Illustrator. Design Execution As true to the Design Process article, this project started with discovery and competitive analysis phases, led by the Adaptive Path team. I’ll let them go into as much detail as they want about the early process for this project. Freeform exploration and brainstorming produced descriptive words, qualities, and elements to be used in the design. This was followed by tiny thumbnail sketches exploring loose layout and composition ideas. A few rough ideas sketched on paper made use of bold lines and thick rounded corners, which eventually led to the final design. I’m using Adobe Illustrator more and more often for comping designs, and the Blogger design was no exception. It allows for easy object creation, manipulation, and resizing since everything is in vector format. I can easily move whole sets of objects, guides, and paths. The recent addition of the Effects menu allows me to apply a rounded corner appearance to each block without actually rounding those corners, as seen below: (One gripe about using Illustrator for web stuff: after 11 versions, there’s still no easy way to simulate underlined text without manually drawing lines with the pen tool, then moving them every time the text reflows.) A few clickable prototypes, several days of user testing, more tweaks and changes, and the down-and-dirty CSS work began. (Note: CSS didn’t really even enter the process until this final stage.) Technical Insight I won’t go into much detail here on technical details. But I will confess that this project is what finally prompted me to write about the IE Factor. The frustration of building a design in CSS and getting it to work across all browsers is certainly more apparent when you’re trying things you’ve never seen done or explained before. IE was the main culprit. Both Windows and Mac versions proved exceptionally difficult to bring into submission, but at least the Mac version had known workarounds and filters. Some of the features of the design (like the subtle background changes when hovering over the icons on the home page) were completely disabled for IE because they produced unintended and unacceptable results. The rounded corners seen throughout the Blogger redesign (and in several of the user templates) make use of an expansion of the Sliding Doors technique written for A List Apart last year. The Blogger design is a fixed width, which means most of the modules of the site exist at pre-defined widths. Since the width of each module is known, one image is used for the top-left and top-right corners of a module, and another image is used for the bottom-left and bottom-right corners. The images are called in as background images for two nested elements. Since these two elements contain all the text of the module, they expand infinitely as the module grows in height. Think of it as Sliding Doors turned on their sides. For modules requiring a border, the two images are modified to include top and bottom borders connecting the two corners. A third element gets nested in the HTML that uses left and right borders which connect top and bottom corners. This design posed many other challenges when building it out, specifically because we wanted to allow the text and each of the design elements (header, modules) to be as flexible and scalable as possible. The markup construction was tricky and required compromises in several places. As is evident with the rounded corner modules, extra divs were necessary for each background image called in. In CSS3, border images will certainly help eliminate the need for extra elements. And I’ve been pressuring Tantek to get the CSS Working Group to consider allowing us to set multiple background images on one HTML element. Wrap Up As I have the habit of doing on product launch day, I’ve provided more than enough information for anyone to digest. I’ll close it off by saying that it was an incredibly fun project to work on. From the pleasure of partnering with incredibly smart folks at Adaptive Path, to the fun-spirited team at Google we got to work with, to the designers who agreed to help participate in a template project with little knowledge of the entire picture and, initially, not knowing who the client was. This launch is a huge deal for Blogger. They may not have gotten everything right out of the gate, so I’ll cut them plenty of slack, and I would hope others do the same based on the number of improvements and enhancements they’ve made all at once. For instance, those who know my style and promotion of web standards may immediately try to validate the home page. I’ll save you the time and tell you it won’t validate right now. (If you’ve already visited Blogger and hit your Validate HTML favelet within a minute of seeing the new design, shame on you. Don’t you have better things to do? Aren’t there other things more interesting than making sure a new site launches with valid code the very same day?) A few simple omissions of closing brackets, and use of the target tag within a XHTML 1.0 Strict doctype is preventing the front page from validating right now. They’ll get to it eventually. Bear with them as they try to make sure everything else is working correctly for all the users who depend on the service to publish their thoughts and experiences to the world. Fixes and new features will most likely continue to roll out in the weeks ahead, so expect changes over time. Overall, what a great project. Despite the frustration with browser rendering consistency that plagued us on the tail end of this project, it was still fun. Good client, good team, good product. What more could you ask for? For the rest of the story on new features and changes, check out The Great Blogger Relaunch, which tells the story from their perspective.

缅甸与昂山素季的未来

 

昂山素季，有人说她是一位柔情似水的女性，有人说她是一名性格刚强的斗士，但也有人认为她是令人头疼的麻烦制造者。但无论如何，她的命运都同缅甸的命运紧紧联系在了一起。我们关注缅甸与昂山素季的未来，是因为缅甸是中国的重要的邻国，缅甸政局的稳定也直接关系到中国周边的稳定以及中国的国家利益。

□暨南大学东南亚研究所林锡星

达成谅解仍需时日

5月30日，昂山素季发表批评政府的演说引发了缅甸全国民主联盟（简称“民盟”）与政府支持者之间的流血冲突。此后，缅甸政府关闭了民盟在仰光的总部及在全国各地的分部，逮捕了民盟的主要领导人，昂山素季也受到军政府“监护”，这是1988年她从英国回国后第三次被政府限制人身自由。而美国也因此对缅甸实施了更为严厉的制裁。缅甸的民主化运动再一次陷于停滞。

事实上，从2000年开始，缅甸政府与民盟就试图达成妥协，以双方都能够接受的方式推进民主化。奈温主动推动军政府与民盟的谈判；民盟也从斗争的经验中意识到必须放弃在缅甸一步实现民主化的想法，而在现实政治的基础上，以渐进方式实现民主，所以，在谈判中，民盟及昂山素季在一些重大问题上也作出了让步。

军政府原计划在2002年3月份结束谈判，组建过渡政府，待新宪法制定完毕后举行新一轮大选。也就是说，缅甸政府考虑在2005－2007年间完成向民选政府的过渡。如果双方能捐弃前嫌，严格履行协议，这一计划有望按部就班地实现。然而，5月流血冲突表明，现有的谅解仍然不足以支撑双方的互信。

8月末，缅甸新总理钦纽上将提出关于国民大会推动缅甸国家未来政治走向的新计划，使僵局出现了松动的迹象。在这个新计划中，钦纽阐明了缅甸民主“路线图”走向的具体步骤。但这并不能让民盟的支持者以及美国感到满意。缅甸反对派谴责该计划，仰光的外交官和观察家亦说钦纽的计划只是新瓶装旧酒。而美国更是一直未放松对缅甸军政府施加压力，在10月的东盟首脑会议期间，美国还对东盟国家对缅甸的态度表示不满。

11月8日，在美国的推动下，联合国人权特使保罗·塞尔吉奥·平赫罗专程前往缅甸探望昂山素季。平赫罗称，因5 月30日事件而逮捕的人士当中，还剩35人在牢狱中。另外，还有8名民盟的中央执行委员会成员在家里接受着拘禁。平赫罗表示，昂山素季没有受到严格的人身限制，但她表示，在被逮捕的所有人，以及她的8位同事全部获得自由以前，她自己不会接受当局给予的任何特权或是自由。

但无论如何，平赫罗得以探访昂山素季，至少使缅甸局势缓和了下来。缅甸政府、昂山素季与美国之间关系的张弛曾导致缅甸政局的几度反复，所有人都想知道，这一回是否能开启一个良性互动的进程，推动缅甸民主化的发展。

缅甸局势牵动东盟

缅甸确实已成为令东盟很伤脑筋的问题。缅甸民主化出现问题，是因反对党是西方支持的昂山素季。既然，西方已经为此颁了一个诺贝尔和平奖给她，那就非与军政府干到底不可。但是，缅甸军方却不妥协。于是，东盟介于西方压力与互不干涉集团内政中间，非常为难。

6月16日，东盟外长会议在金边举行的时候，在大会的同意下会议就缅甸局势与昂山素季问题进行了讨论，谨慎地表达了释放昂山素季的意思。10月，在印尼巴厘岛高峰会期间，东盟领导人再次对缅甸局势表示关注，并发表文告欢迎缅甸军政府“最近正面的发展”，声明国际制裁不会对缅甸民主改革有所帮助。但东盟内部各国的侧重点也有不同。

印尼总统梅加瓦蒂曾受过苏哈托政府压迫之苦，对昂山素季自然报以同情，所以会前便呼吁缅甸释放昂山素季，希望她能够恢复自由，但缅甸政府对此置若罔闻。马哈蒂尔则偏重于强调“国际社会不要利用制裁手段来逼使缅甸走向民主”。马哈蒂尔甚至表示，他并不后悔把军人统治的缅甸带入东盟，并呼吁国际社会对缅甸的民主改革要有耐心。

对于东盟各国首脑在高峰会议前后“要求释放昂山素季”的呼吁，缅甸领导人除了继续参加各种会议之外，基本态度是不予理睬。缅甸政府采取强硬态度的原因有二：

一是有恃无恐。对缅甸制裁的西方国家，尤其是美国，与缅甸的经济联系相对较弱。与缅甸经济关系最为密切的东盟以外的国家是中国、印度、日本，日本只在表面上装装样子，中国完全没有干预缅甸的意思，缅甸没有必要因经济制裁而恐慌。在东盟内部，与缅甸关系最密切的泰国与它的经贸关系也丝毫不受影响。

二是怕影响政权。假如昂山素季获释后，能如缅甸政府所开出条件出国当然可以；但如果她不肯出国，那么她始终是缅甸反对者的支持和象征，不论是否举行选举，昂山素季对现政府都是一个威胁。

但是，美欧主要国家当中，主张对缅甸采取强硬态度的论调抬头的情况下，从确保作为地区组织的东盟的国际信誉这一立场出发，东盟所有成员国都希望在区域内国家的主导下解决缅甸问题。正是在此背景下，东盟国家提出了“路线图”计划。

缅甸问题的“路线图”计划，由泰国在2003年7月24日提出。泰国把邻国缅甸民主化的问题视为“泰国的朝鲜半岛问题”。因为，如果对缅甸实施制裁，那么大批缅甸难民就会流入邻国，包括泰国。因此，泰国尤其希望“通过对话解决问题”。东盟国家也对“路线图”计划抱有很大期望。

缅甸现状：应对制裁、筹划“路线图”

在昂山素季被拘禁后，美国联合欧盟、加拿大、澳大利亚、日本等国对缅甸实施了更加严厉的制裁，波及缅甸众多产业。仅制衣业就已造成200多家工厂关闭，百万工人失业。美国禁止从缅甸进口任何商品，并于8月10日公布了一份涉及缅甸军政府高层官员及其家属170人及6家公司的名单；宣布冻结上述人员和公司在美国的全部资产，禁止美国国内任何法人或自然人与上述人员和公司发生金融和贸易业务；禁止缅军人集团高层官员及其家属赴美。因缅甸对外贸易中赚钱的生意多为军政府高官亲戚子女在做，美国的制裁除使普通百姓受害外，也影响了缅军政府高层的利益。

所以，缅甸政府目前的主要工作仍然是消除制裁对缅甸产生的不利影响。在经济方面，缅甸政府将目光集中于缅中、缅泰、缅印的边境贸易；为了鼓励大公司的积极性，缅甸一改过去边贸以美元结算的做法，规定扩大商业进出口往来可以以发生贸易对象国的货币为单位结算；并扩大商人进出口货物的自主权，只要商人将出口货物总值的10％购买政府指定的进口货物，另外 90％可自行决定进口货物，以应对美国实行经济制裁带来的影响。

在政治方面，就是响应“路线图”计划，缓解政治压力。东盟的路线图分三个阶段：（l）迅速释放昂山素季；（2）军政当局同全国民主联盟和少数民族代表进行对话，建立相互信任关系，促进“国民和解”；（3）通过东盟、美国、中国和欧盟等对缅甸表示关注的第三势力给予缅甸侧面支持，实现民主化，包括保证全国民主联盟的政治自由和制定新宪法。最终实现的时间计划为缅甸作为东盟主席国的 2006年。

2003年8月30日上午，缅甸总理钦纽在接见各部门负责人、军区司令、非政府的社会和经济团体协会代表时，就缅甸未来发展政策走向发表讲话，对缅甸民主化作出了具体安排。其主要内容包括：第一步，重新启动1996年临时中断的国民大会；第二步，召开国民大会，逐步开始各项工作进程，建立一个真实的、有充分秩序的民主制度；第三步，按照国民大会制定的基本原则起草新宪法草案；第四步，举行全民公投，通过宪法草案；第五步，举行大选组成议会；第六步，按照新宪法召开议会；第七步，由议会选举产生的国家领导人和议会组成的内阁及权力机构领导国家迈向现代化的、发达的新民主国家。这可以看作是对路线图计划重要环节的具体化。

然而，钦纽只不过是前台干实务的人物。国家军政大权仍掌握在丹瑞大将手上。丹瑞交出总理职位，却保留了国防部长、三军司令和全国最高决策机构“和平与发展委员会”主席等要职。钦纽之所以被推到前台来，很大程度上是因为他为人文质彬彬，素来给人以温和派的印象，对内外可起缓冲的作用。不过，未来的缅甸政治激流不可能容许他长期中庸骑墙。如果他执行的和解任务失败了，钦纽的政治生涯也许就此告终。钦纽上将如今在“和平与发展委员会”内已不再担任任何职务。从目前的情况看，他很可能步吴奈温的后尘，届时脱下军装，参加竞选。

中国明确反对国际制裁缅甸在缅甸问题上，国际上一直有人希望中国能在解决有关昂山素季的危机上发挥更大的作用。但是，中国认为，目前缅甸的国内形势是缅甸的内部事务，中国不同意外国对这个国家进行干涉、制裁或孤立。2003年8月，国务委员、前外长唐家璇在接见来访的缅甸高级官员的时候，明确反对国际社会因为缅甸军政府拘押民主人士昂山素季而制裁缅甸。

中国支持缅甸主要原因之一是外交战略上的考虑。两国一直维持着良好的政治和经济联系。中国保持与缅甸关系既包含长远的经济考虑，即使是从周边安全的角度来考虑问题，当然也希望与缅甸保持良好关系。当缅甸已经被西方国家制裁的时候，当缅甸没有其他选择只有中国的时候，中国当然不能抛弃它。

2003年10月6日，温家宝总理在印尼巴厘岛会见缅甸总理钦纽时，就阐述了中国政府重视发展与周边国家关系的政策和主张。温家宝表示，我们希望缅甸保持稳定，经济得到发展，促进民族和解进程。中国愿加强与缅甸的互利合作，加强边境管理和禁毒方面的合作，共同打击跨境犯罪，维护边境地区稳定。钦纽表示，缅中关系近年来得到较快发展，他保证缅甸将保持稳定，实现民主。

近来有关中缅边界地区的一系列军事调动引起了国际观察家的种种猜测。

早在2002年3月18日，美国就已正式把佤邦联合军定为“毒品恐怖主义”组织，泰国曾要求美国支持它越界打击贩毒集团。2003年9月，中国人民解放军进驻中缅边境，与原先的武警边防部队换防。随后不久，缅甸政府就把离泰国较近的彬文那（Pyinmana）定为缅甸的第三大城市（在仰光和曼德勒之后），并把中央军区迁移到彬文那。

境内外人士对中国边防军进驻中缅边境一线的反应是：中国在强化边境管理，加大打击边境走私贩毒活动的力度，对缅境内靠近中国边境一线的赌博活动将起到较大威慑作用。

缅甸各派武装势力则称，军事调动同近期美国政府加大对缅军政府的施压政策并派人员在缅甸国内以及缅北地区进行秘密调查活动有关。有分析家认为，在“先发制人”的战略指导下，美国有可能出兵缅甸，原因在于：一是美国政府认为，缅甸国内战乱不止，人权状况较差，影响世界和平与发展；二是缅各派武装势力较多，各控制区种植罂粟面积大，毒品走私活动十分猖獗，并利用泰国、印度等国的贩毒组织将毒品走私进入美国，危及美国的社会治安稳定；三是缅各派武装组织的恐怖活动不断滋生蔓延。美出兵缅甸既可以钳制缅甸政府；又能够对中国形成威慑。正因为如此，外界对今后的局势发展不感到乐观。

然而，缅甸的命运与进程，最终决定权在缅甸人民自己手中。当一个进程已经开启的时候，没有什么力量能够阻止历史前进的脚步。

南方周末   2003-11-20 15:20:15

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